In depth · Sourcing strategy
An energy system is only as robust as its source portfolio.
Choosing energy sources is not a snapshot decision but a strategic one, shaping the resilience of a system for decades — in a landscape of shifting prices, regulation, surroundings and demand.
The central question is not "what is the best source?" but "which combination of sources is most robust under uncertainty?"
Roles within the portfolio
A sound sourcing plan starts with a clear division of roles: which source runs the most hours, and which stands ready for the peak. The rule of thumb: the cheapest megawatt-hour runs the most — the most expensive as little as possible, yet is always available.
BASE LOAD · 6,000–8,000 hrs/year
The foundation
Delivers the lion’s share of the energy at low variable cost, with a higher upfront investment. Think geothermal, waste heat or aquathermal energy.
MID LOAD · 2,000–5,000 hrs/year
The switch
Absorbs seasonal and daily variation and follows the market. Think heat pumps, CHP or hybrid configurations.
PEAK LOAD · < 1,000 hrs/year
The insurance
Few hours, high variable cost, low investment — yet indispensable for security of supply. Think a peak boiler or e-boiler.
Robustness as the guiding principle
Optimising for a single view of the future builds false certainty. Designing for robustness builds resilience.
SCENARIO OPTIMISATION
Maximum return under a single assumption about the future — and vulnerable the moment that future turns out differently.
ROBUST PORTFOLIO THINKING
Acceptable in every scenario, excellent in most. The winning portfolio holds its value even when scenarios contradict one another.
We therefore test a sourcing plan against widely differing futures — even when they contradict one another:
High gas prices
High electricity prices
Prolonged low energy prices
Stricter sustainability requirements
Loss of a source
Changing demand
Three dimensions, assessed together
We assess every source — and every combination of sources — along three axes at once. A portfolio that excels on one axis but fails on another is not a robust portfolio.
Economic
Resilient under fluctuating gas, electricity and CO₂ prices. A positive business case in most price scenarios, without single-subsidy dependency.
Technical
Redundancy in case the largest source fails, temperature integration on the network and scalability towards future connections and lower temperatures.
Sustainability & regulation
Renewable share per unit delivered, position relative to legislation and regulation, and a credible path to climate neutrality towards 2050.
From portfolio to decision
Robustness is not an abstract principle — it can be organised, in four steps.
01
Scenario matrix
Draw up multiple future scenarios and assess each source option on economics, technology and sustainability.
02
Portfolio score
Weigh for robustness: not the highest expected value, but the best worst-case performance.
03
Phasing & optionality
Modular expansion keeps options open; early commitment to one large source rules out alternatives.
04
Contract structure
Security of supply, price indexation, offtake volumes and exit clauses anchor robustness in practice.
The strongest combination of assets is robust — not optimal. It keeps supply secure under outage, stays resilient under shifting prices and is prepared for tomorrow’s regulatory framework.
Get in touch
Skager BV — combined energiesskager.eu · info@skager.eu
